Hertwig Ralph. Taming uncertainty

Cambridge : MIT Press, 2019. — 469 p. — ISBN 9780262039871 0262039877.
How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationalitythat is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.The Heuristic Mind. The robust beauty of heuristics in choice under uncertainty / Ralph Hertwig, Jan K. Woike, Thorsten Pachur, and Eduard Brandstätter
using risk-reward structures to reckon with uncertainty / Timothy J. Pleskac, Ralph Hertwig, Christina Leuker, and Larissa Conradt
going round in circles: how social structures guide and limit search / Christin Schulze and thorsten Pachur
Strategic uncertainty and incomplete information: the hono heuristics does not fold / Leonidas Spilopoulos and Ralph Hertwig
Toward simple eating rules for the land of plenty / Mattea Dallacker, Jutta Mata, and Ralph Hertwig The Exploring Mind. Adaptive exploration: what you see is up to you / Dirk U. Wulff, Doug Markant, Timothy J. Pleskac, and Ralph Hertwig
The weight of uncertain events / Thorsten Pachur and Ralph Hertwig
Tomorrow never knows: why and how uncertainty matters in intertemporal choice / Junyi Dai, Thorsten Pachur, Timothy J. Pleskac, and Ralph Hertwig
Experiences and descriptions of financial uncertainty: are they equivalent? / Thomás Lejarraga, Jan K. Woike, and Ralph Hertwig
Ways to learn from experience / Thorsten Pachur and Dries Trippas. The Social Mind. Rivals in the dark: rationality and the wisdom of crowds / Stefan M. Herzog, Aleksandra Litvinova, Kyanoush S. Yagosseini, Alan N. Trump, and Ralf H. J. M. Kurvers
Crowds on the move / Mehdi Moussaïd The Unfinished Mind. Computational evolution and ecologically rational decision making / Peter D. Kvam, Arend hintze, timothy J. Pleskac, and David Pietraszewski
How the adaptive adolescent mind navigates uncertainty / Wouter van den Bos, Corinna Laube, and Ralph Hertwig
The life-span development of risk preference / Rui Mata and Renato Frey