Linstone Harold (ed.). The Delphi Method Techniques and Applications

Portland USA : Portland State University.,2002. — 618 p. — ISBN: 0-201-04294-0English. Delphi has come a long way in its brief history, and it has a long way to go. Since its invention about twenty years ago for the purpose of estimating the probable effects of a massive atomic bombing attack on United States, and its subsequent application in the mid -sixties to technological forecasting, its use has proliferated in the United States and Abroad. While its principal area of application has remained that of technical forecasting, it has been used in many other contexts in which judgmental information is indispensable. These include normative forecasts; the ascertainment of values and preferences; estimates concerning the quality of life; simulated and real decision making; and what may be called ‘inventive planning’, by which is meant the identification (including invention) of potential measures that might be taken to deal with a given problem situation and the assessment of such proposed measures with regard to their feasibility, desirability, and effectiveness…